Han Yingyue interest rate hike is expected to upset the market gold long slim liuxiaobo

Han Yingyue: the interest rate is expected to disrupt the gold bull market slim client view the latest market since August, the market focus on the change of the Fed rate hike is expected, the Fed rate hike is expected to rise and fall, market fluctuations. At present, the market is generally expected the Fed will not raise interest rates at the September meeting, before the Fed meeting on interest rates in September, the interest rate hike is expected to fluctuate. Because the U.S. stocks fell sharply, resulting in greater volatility in global financial markets, based on this, the Fed meeting in September before and after the re release is less likely to raise interest rates signal, even if the market for machine counter, but its persistent bias, limited space. Han Yingyue believes that the Fed will raise interest rates in the second half of the event will become an important risk point in the financial markets, and even become the main line of the dominant market sentiment. On September this year, the U.S. Federal Reserve will be held on the 21 meeting on interest rates, the U.S. data released previously disappointing, the market is expected to lower interest rate hike in September. However, the recent U.S. and Japanese officials of the Fed’s statement shows a large difference, and caused the global financial market turmoil. Especially when the Hawks emerge, the market demand for hedging immediately reflect, gold, bonds and a corresponding increase in demand for safe haven assets. Changes in the market for the FOMC decision under, Han Yingyue believes that if the Fed does not raise interest rates in September, December or so before the four quarter of the market uncertainty will increase the volatility of funds at the end of the three season will spend smoothly; if the Fed rate hike in September, then the end of the three quarter financial volatility will increase substantially, does not exclude the possibility of domestic monetary policy short-term enhancement. However, this also reduces the uncertainty of the latter, the fourth quarter of the risk aversion will be substantially reduced. Tuesday (13 September) to the international spot gold fell slightly, although the Fed governor Brainard’s speech on Monday that the Fed rate hike is expected to cool down, gold decline eased, but the United States that continued to be strong, but made gold bearing long scruples, so the gold for two consecutive days to maintain low volatility, the highest price of gold on Tuesday hit 1330 line. But the two hit 1332 no breakthrough, formation blocked down, directly out of the shock down, the lowest test line 1314. Although the market has now lowered the rate hike in September, but the possibility of interest rate has not been eliminated, so the pressure will not be reduced in the short term gold. Tuesday crude oil, the international oil price shocks weaken, taking most of the gains overnight, U.S. crude oil futures fell more than 2% in October to $45.04 a barrel, Brent crude oil futures in November hit a low of $47.18 a barrel, although the overnight dollar weakness has helped the rise in oil prices, but the Bulls soon profits, because the fundamentals are still at the plight of IEA (International Department of energy) released monthly in the display, slowing demand for crude oil, OPEC supply is still increasing, excess supply will remain on the first half of 2017, also has weighed on oil prices. Technical analysis: gold from on line for five consecutive Yinxian, experienced in the positive stimulus of gold was above the 1350 mark, but Fed officials to raise interest rates in September to discuss the problem of problem, makes gold road rebound halted, the gold bull before the king lost, week 1320 mark repeatedly finally did not test.相关的主题文章: